Current Forecast Meet the Forecaster

Issued: 12am on Thursday, January 1st 1970

Technical Forecast Discussion

Short term (Sunday 8/12 through Tuesday 8/14)

Tonight, isolated storms have a small potential of popping up in the region. CAPE is non-impressive, but the presence of the cut off upper level low and sufficient vorticity will make storms possible. High pressure around the Great Lakes will also oppose convection, so storms become less likely as the area loses heating. On Monday, the same scenario for storms will occur. This time high pressure will be closer as it hangs over central West Virginia. The closed low will slowly move eastward, but still be present. While vorticity and and diurnal heating will be the main factors for convection again, moisture will decrease as it approaches the late afternoon. This coupled with the presence of high pressure will make storms less likely than tonight for Monday. Moisture will be nearly cleared out by Monday night resulting in clouds slowing decreasing and weather becoming fair. On Tuesday, another high pressure system moves near the region as the upper level low moves out of the state. Near zonal upper level flow will come in to replace it. The absence of a trough will allow for some warm air to move north as we see highs rise into the mid 80s. Weather should remain fair as moisture remains low and vorticity from the low leaves as well. Moisture will be low so cloud cover will be minimal.

Long term (Wednesday 8/15 through Saturday 8/18)

Upper level ridging will arrive mid Wednesday allowing for warmer temperatures and the continuation of fair weather and little cloud cover as high pressure will move away from the region. Another upper level disturbance will form on Thursday that will lead to the development of another low pressure system. The system will be centered over the western portion of the Great Lakes on Thursday. This will push a large quantity of moisture ahead of the frontal boundary. CAPE does not look impressive so far, but vorticity will form ahead of the frontal boundary providing lift, and with the highs reaching the mid to high 80s that day, heating will be able to substitute as a convection producer. The cold frontal boundary looks to pass over on Friday. Dry air will be behind the front, so storms and showers are possible during the day, but diminsh in chance as the evening comes. Saturday will see the return of high pressure over Ohio. CAA will drop highs into the low 80s once again as cloud cover diminishes.

The next technical discussion will be Wednesday 8/15