Current Forecast Meet the Forecaster

Issued: 12am on Thursday, January 1st 1970

Technical Forecast Discussion

Short term (Sunday 8/19 through Tuesday 8/21)

General ridging exists tonight as some moisture in the area will lead to a somewhat humid night. On Monday, a mid level low will begin to influence patterns. Cloud cover will slowly begin to increase in the early afternoon as the warm front of a low pressure system begins to move in. Precipitation should be in the area by Monday evening. Abundant moisture and CAPE around 1500 J/kg is expected when the frontal boundary moves in. Storms and showers are likely in these conditions, but severe weather is unlikely as forcing and shearing looks weak for Monday night. It will be cloudy overnight as showers continue into Tuesday. A few embedded storms are possible in the late afternoon on Tuesday, but showers will be the dominant form of precipitation as moisture is widespread. Another band of storms is likely on Tuesday evening as the cold front approaches the area. A band of positive vorticity will be help with forcing convection as models show CAPE maxing between 1500/1750 J/kg. Models also show 500mb bulk shearing maxing around 30-40 knots, but disagree on the exact timing of it. If shearing is present before 9pm then a possibility for severe weather will exist. The main threat will be flooding as grounds will be saturated from long periods of rain earlier that day, so heavy downpours from storms later will have flash flood risk. Precipitation will cease earlier Wednesday as dry air follows the cold frontal boundary.

Long term (Wednesday 8/22 through Saturday 8/25)

An upper level trough will be over Ohio on Wednesday, but the lack of moisture will make precipitation not possible. CAA will move through with the mass of dry air as high only reach the mid to high 70s. Upper level ridging begins to approach the region on Thursday as a high pressure system will be on the border of Indiana and Ohio. This will continue the clear and dry conditions. Some CAA begins to leave the area as highs slightly increase to the high 70s. Upper level ridging weakens on Friday as upper level flow becomes zonal. Some warm air from the South will slowly filter into the region to slowly increase temperatures to the low 80s for Friday. Some upper level ridging will remain on Saturday to continue the trend of weak WAA the region will experience. The lack of surface features will serve to continue clear and dry conditions which look to persist through the end of the weekend.

The next technical discussion will be Wednesday 8/22