Issued: 8pm on Sunday, August 24th 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term Forecast (Sunday 08/24/2025 through Tuesday 08/26/2025)
A substantial cooldown is expected primarily in the short-term compared to the past few weeks of intense heat we’ve been experiencing. An upper-level trough will continue to dig down over the eastern half of the Midwest, allowing cool, Canadian air to travel southward into Ohio and the surrounding states. The trough axis will be at its strongest directly pointing just to the west of Ohio, maximizing the amount of cooler air in these regions. During the evening and very early morning hours of Tuesday into Wednesday, a minor shortwave aloft at 200 mb will situate itself directly over Ohio, likely allowing the chance for a punch of cold air advection between 500 and 700 mb. This could potentially produce a bitterly chilly low temperature that evening. By the end of Wednesday, this trough will begin to slightly weaken and much of the cold air advection aloft will noticeably diminish. Clouds are likely to be minimal these next few days thanks to a large dry air mass aloft especially and drier air near the surface, but moisture aloft will occasionally move in small clusters aloft which will allow some high-altitude clouds to develop as some vertical motions exist throughout the entire short and long-term. All the while, high-pressure at the surface will dominate throughout this upcoming work week and into the weekend, halting any convective development in the process.
Long-Term Forecast (Wednesday 08/27/2025 through Saturday 08/30/2025)
In the long-term, the trough aloft will re-organize, though not to the strength it was in the early short-term. Warmer air will unfortunately creep on back into the region near the surface and at 500 mb, though cooler air could inject at 700 mb, creating minor instability in the atmosphere. However, nothing so far is expected to utilize this small amount of instability possible. As previously mentioned, high-pressure will continue through the week, and a minor ridge will start to build during this time. Clouds will likely build throughout this time compared to the short-term, especially Friday and Saturday. Larger clusters of moisture throughout the atmosphere will move in during these times, though the upper and mid-levels of the atmosphere could see higher a moisture content, allowing any clouds that develop to primarily be at these same levels. However, some clouds could also form near the surface as well. 500 mb height tendency is likely to remain positive and generally stable. Overall, mostly similar conditions from the short-term are expected in the long-term as well, however, as warmer air throughout the atmosphere moves into the region, we could see a slight warming trend from the cooler temperatures expected Monday through Wednesday.
