Issued: 8pm on Sunday, August 31st 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term Forecast (Sunday 08/31/2025 through Tuesday 09/02/2025)
Aloft, a broad cut-off low will likely form briefly with its center just east of Ohio over Pennsylvania and New York, but merge with the trough that will begin to form and deepen Tuesday. While surface high-pressure will keep skies primarily clear on Monday alongside a dry airmass throughout the atmosphere, clouds could begin to develop on Tuesday as some moisture moves into the region in the upper-atmosphere and near the surface. By this time, the cut-off low will begin to merge with the previously mentioned trough. Throughout the short-term, instability is present with cooler air at 500 and 700 mb while warmer air instead at 850 and 925 mb, though, without moisture, the atmosphere can’t utilize this instability. Overall, because of dry air dominating throughout the atmosphere, very little activity is expected in the short-term. High-pressure at the surface will only amplify this expected stability.
Long-Term Forecast (Wednesday 09/03/2025 through Saturday 08/06/2025)
A noticeable shift from the continuous stable conditions will likely be seen later this week. While mostly uneventful on Wednesday, a minor cooling trend yet again is expected to begin then. Generally warm temperatures will still permeate in southeastern Ohio as a result of an approaching mid-latitude cyclone putting the region behind a warm front. Southerly winds will help transport warm, moist air on Wednesday, and as the surface cold front pushes eastward, westerly winds aloft will help provide more moisture on Thursday as well. Instability will still be seen on Wednesday and Thursday, and because of an increase of moisture in the region, rain may become a possibility on Wednesday; however, this possibility isn’t incredibly high. The trough mentioned in the short-term will begin to deepen on Wednesday, but especially on Thursday when the mid-latitude cyclone nears Ohio. While the cold front will likely still be in the northeastern part of the state by Thursday morning, a rapid building of cloud cover throughout Thursday morning and into the daytime hours could follow as a result. Consistently strong vertical velocity values will be present Thursday morning into the evening, and relative vorticity may provide enough energy to allow a sustained line of rain to follow ahead of the cold front. With a strong upper-level and surface gradient from the approaching trough in combination with the cold front, strong, gusty winds could be felt Thursday as the rain moves through. Depending on how much energy is present in the atmosphere Thursday, a rumble of thunder or two is not out of the question. By Friday and Saturday, however, much of that energy and moisture will likely die out with cooler temperatures to follow. Some weak high-pressure could fill in behind the cold front Friday and Saturday, allowing skies to clear once more.
