Issued: 8pm on Sunday, August 3rd 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term Forecast (Sunday 08/03/2025 through Tuesday 08/05/2025)
An upper-level trough will slowly crawl its way eastward towards the Ohio Valley Region, creating the possibility for some clouds to build into the coming days. A massive surface high-pressure situated over central to eastern Canada will produce predominantly eastward winds, especially as a disturbance just off the coast of the Carolinas develops. These easterly/southeasterly winds will transport warm, moist air towards Ohio, but the Appalachian Mountains will help keep the atmosphere relatively dry in comparison to other parts of Ohio. The moisture content may be enough for cloud development, primarily in the mid-to-upper levels, because of westerly winds aloft from the typical divergent pattern of low-pressure systems at this level. However, even with this, there may not be enough moisture to allow rain to fall in considerable amounts, if at all. Generally broadening 500 mb height values isn’t in favor for instability in and around Ohio, either. Cold air advection at 700 mb isn’t too strong, either, so any instability in the atmosphere will be quite weak. Very little and very weak vertical velocities in the short-term won’t be enough to allow strong convection, so the short-term is likely to remain dry with a few clouds to greet us for the start of the work week.
Long-Term Forecast (Wednesday 08/06/2025 through Saturday 08/09/2025)
Moving into the long-term, the trough aloft will become relatively stationary just east of Ohio. The trough will be generally minor and weak, allowing a large, broad region of high-pressure at the surface to persist even further. This trough could slowly morph back into a ridge by Saturday, though it is too early to determine with confidence. Cloud cover will decrease by Wednesday into the end of the week, especially as most cloud development will remain in the upper atmosphere as enough moisture could be present. While some vertical velocity values between 500 and 850 mb are relatively strong, the minimal moisture content near the surface will make it quite difficult for convection to occur. Surface high-pressure will also inhibit upward motion to occur throughout this week, especially as the 500 mb height tendency continues to remain stable and broad. Primarily warm air advection will dominate near the surface and at 500 mb, and while some cold air advection is present at 700 mb, it’s not substantial enough to create significant instability. Overall, stable conditions will continue in both the short-term and long-term, and unfortunately, as clouds decrease, our air temperature could trend upwards once more.
