Issued: 8pm on Sunday, February 12th 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Sunday 2/12/2023 through Thursday 2/16/2023)
Temperatures are on the rise with warm air advection into a troughing pattern. We are in the warm sector of an incoming low pressure system, which looks to have a strong pressure gradient and increasing wind speeds, keeping temperatures rather pleasant and unseasonably warm for the early part of the work week. Westerly winds transition to southerly winds with the timing of another low pressure center passing to our north on Wednesday. Chances for precipitation look to be minimal as the system appears to be weakening by the time it passes just to our north, but clouds are likely to suspend and linger through Thursday when another low pressure center developing in the southwest progresses and strikes us with a greater chance of precipiation. Precipitation type remains as rain with temperatures well above freezing. However, we cannot rule out a small chance for rain leading up to Thursday as there is plenty of rising motion and subsequent moisture arriving on Wednesday. Rain is likely all day Thursday with high moisture levels as well as the low pressure passage just over the North.
Long Term (Thursday 2/16/2023 through Sunday 2/19/2023)
Once the cold front passes to the East on Thursday, cold air reenters the area, dropping our overnight lows back into the 20s. Conditions dry out temporarily with ridging pattern taking over, but with more warm air entering the area comes our next system set to arrive on Sunday. While it is still very far in advance to pinpoint timing of this event, rain can be expected with temperatures being well above freezing ahead of the passage.