Issued: 8pm on Sunday, February 26th 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Sunday 2/26/2023 through Thursday 3/2/2023)
We saw dominating high pressure through Sunday, allowing for the sun to peak through and give us a little peek of pleasant. We have a low pressure system pushing in from the West to bring our next chance for rain ahead its associated warm front. A tightened pressure gradient is the cause for a Wind Advisory from NWS from 1pm on Monday to 1am on Tuesday while the bulk of the system carries across the region towards the East. While we will see rain in the afternoon on Monday, we will also see temperatures climb with the passing warm air. Strong vertical wind shear with a strong southerly low level jet creates the chance for some thunderstorms, and even the chance for some severe thunderstorms, per the SPC’s advice. We could see QPF up to an inch in some areas. The main hazards with this system is flooding due to heavy rain, blustery winds, and if greater heating and moisture were to arrive than expected, we cannot rule out the isolated tornado.
Rain will persist in the area until upper level ridging takes over thereafter, making for high pressure to settle back into the area and dry up conditions on Tuesday afternoon. The associated cold front will drop temperatures slightly, but we will remain quite warm for this time of year with daytime highs in the 50s on Tuesday. With building high pressure and associated clear skies, Wednesday is looking to be quite pleasant with lots of sun and temperatures climbing up to the lows 70s! It will be a nice break before another system hits the area overnight into Thursday, though it is expected to be weaker than the low pressure set to arrive in the area tomorrow, Monday.
Long Term (Thursday 2/26/2023 through Sunday 3/5/2023)
Precipitation is likely with a weak low pressure center passing overnight into Thursday. While we are expected to wake up to some wet spots in the area on Thursday, we will catch a brief break in the rain with brief ridging, but a strengthening low pressure developing in the Southwest will carry up into the area. We will reside in the warm sector of this storm before rain arrives with the cold front in the early afternoon on Friday. Temperatures remain above freezing, so precipitation will fall as rain. More accurate numbers for QPF as well as timing will arrive once we get closer to the storms expected arrival.