Current Forecast Meet the Forecaster

Issued: 8pm on Sunday, July 13th 2025

Technical Forecast Discussion

Short-Term Forecast (Sunday 07/13/2025 through Tuesday 07/15/2025):

A minor trough aloft will push its way eastward tonight into Monday as a cold front follows alongside it at the surface. Another warm air mass will force this cold front to become stationary throughout the day Monday, creating a minor temperature gradient at the surface. A minor concern for thunderstorms exists tomorrow, though the chance for cloud cover early on in the day could dampen those chances. A shortwave is present early in the day Monday at 500 mb, though it quickly moves out of Ohio by the early afternoon. Two prominent high-pressure systems at the surface on opposing sides of the stationary front will only hinder any chances for rain chances to develop. Moisture is present throughout the atmosphere, and by mid-day the mid-levels begin to see slightly drier air, increasing instability during this time. Around the same time, relative vorticity values will be fairly high at 500 mb, though will begin to decrease near the lower levels. Around the afternoon Monday, convection is possible to occur with plenty of moisture present at the surface and aloft. Dry mid-levels could increase instability throughout the day, though the development of clouds early in the morning Monday could hinder any convection to properly initiate with early showers and possibly a few pop-ups later in the day. Though, these chances do drop significantly by the early afternoon. Tuesday will see the return of zonal flow and a very broad pressure gradient with a mid-level ridge as high-pressure fully settles in the region. Sinking motion with this system as well as weak vertical velocities—even some positive values indicating sinking air—only further indicate stabilization Tuesday.

Long-Term Forecast (Wednesday 07/16/2025 through Saturday 07/19/2025):

Warm air advection on Wednesday will keep the temperatures hot, and moisture transporting from the Gulf will only enhance this feeling. Hot temperatures at the surface and aloft will promote convection, especially with the moisture at this level. Southerly winds as a surface warm front moves through Ohio, putting the state in the warm sector of a surface low.  Falling mid-level heights will be present Wednesday, and strong surface vertical velocities coupled with a warm front moving through Wednesday could initiate showers and thunderstorms into the afternoon and possibly evening. Strong vertical velocities near the surface will aid in any convection that may occur, though weak relative vorticity could make it difficult for storm development. Thursday and Friday yet another trough will develop with the potential to bring showers and storms into the region. Considerable lifting motion will be present both days, though vorticity remains fairly weak. Southerly winds will advect warm, moist air towards Ohio which will provide ample moisture for showers and possibly storms to develop Thursday and Friday. A low-pressure system will slowly move its way down through Ohio which will likely increase precipitation chances Friday. Saturday will stabilize as a ridge aloft begins to fill in as atmospheric heights begin to slowly rise.