Issued: 8pm on Sunday, July 27th 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term Forecast (Sunday 07/27/2025 through Tuesday 07/29/2025)
A broad upper-level ridge continues to sit over the eastern United States into the short-term. Very minimal variation in 500 mb height tendency will be prominent in during the next couple of days, though it will generally trend upward as stable conditions persist. High-pressure at the surface will not budge as it continues to bring sinking air unfavorable for cloud development. Throughout all atmospheric levels, generally western warm air convection will dominate the short-term. This consistent relatively warm air will only discourage intense cloud development, although the moisture present aloft at 200 and 300 mb could allow for some high-level cloud the chance to develop. By 500 mb to the surface, insufficient moisture will keep skies fairly clear. Overall, an incredibly stable atmosphere will make the short-term forecast quite bare, with very little variation in atmospheric conditions.
Long-Term Forecast (Wednesday 07/30/2025 through Saturday 08/02/2025)
A little more activity can be expected in the long-term as a long line of cold fronts connected by multiple surface lows slowly creep southeastward by mid-week. A very broad trough will follow the ridge aloft Wednesday into Friday, allowing the atmosphere to destabilize slightly. While warm air convection will continue to persist at 500 mb and near the surface, some north-northwesterly cold air advection could allow convection to occur and clouds to develop. Moisture will return throughout most levels, and with the minor cold air advection around 700 mb, could allow air parcels to become buoyant and rise easier. With acceptable vertical velocity values between 850 and 500 mb, especially with stronger values at 700 and 500 mb, convection is likely to occur with high air temperatures and the cold front at the surface. Some spin will be present with acceptable relative vorticity values through 850-500 mb, though may not be sufficient for sustained rain showers or possibly thunderstorms. By Friday, rain chances will drop significantly as considerably drier air fills in behind the cold front at the surface. While more rain is not needed, this cold front will thankfully allow temperatures to drop back down into possibly the mid-80s, and maybe even drier air at the surface, leading to some relief from the muggy heat Friday and Saturday.
