Current Forecast Meet the Forecaster

Issued: 8pm on Sunday, July 6th 2025

Technical Forecast Discussion

Short-Term Forecast (Sunday 07/06/2025 through Tuesday 07/08/2025):

A broad region of high-pressure is expected to push out of the Ohio Valley overnight and into Monday. Generally zonal flow will be a focal point in the short-term. Although a line of surface low-pressure systems will move through Monday into Tuesday, the jet stream aloft isn’t expected to be much of assistance to these fronts. Warm air is expected to advect throughout the atmosphere and continuously stabilize as 500 mb heights slowly rise. Near-surface moisture will remain prominent throughout the short-term and will provide enough buoyancy for any air parcels to convect upwards. Acceptable vertical velocities may be minimal, but with a considerable abundance of lift near the surface and hot temperatures could spark a couple of showers and storms Monday. However, the vertical velocities are not particularly strong nor long-lived, so if any showers pop up, they are likely be brief.

Long-Term Forecast (Wednesday 07/09/2025 through Saturday 07/12/2025):

The long-term could see the return of cloudy and unsettled weather. A surface low-pressure system will sit over northern Ohio, and with a minor shortwave enhancing this surface low Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, we could see some showers and thunderstorms once again. A considerable amount of vorticity throughout the 500-700 mb levels supports this shortwave over the region. Slight falling atmospheric heights at 500 mb will also provide some destabilization for this potential event. Surface dew points are expected to be in the lower-to-mid 70s, and southerly winds are expected to only enhance the moisture at the surface. Vertical velocities between 500-700 mb support parcel lift and considering this surface low is expected to sit over Ohio Wednesday into Thursday, it’s likely showers and storms will have the greatest likelihood to spark then. By Friday this low will dissipate as a stationary front overtakes this system. While some lift remains Friday with an okay amount of atmospheric moisture, the chances for showers and storms will diminish. However, by Saturday, a considerable low that is expected to become cut-off will move throughout the northern CONUS. At the surface is a classic mid-latitude cyclone, and Ohio will likely sit in the warm sector of this system. With warm, moist, southerly surface winds, more showers and storms could impact the region on Saturday.