Issued: 8pm on Sunday, November 23rd 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Key Messages:
- Rain to return throughout early to late morning on Tuesday, mostly tapering off by the afternoon.
- A prominent trough is expected to develop Wednesday and Thursday, bringing the state bitterly cold temperatures to close out the work week.
- Winds around 15 mph with gusts of up to 25 mph possible Wednesday and Thursday.
Short-Term Forecast (Sunday 11/23/2025 through Tuesday 11/25/2025)
The remainder of tonight into Monday will remain calm and dry as high-pressure continues to dominate over the eastern United States. Continued sunny to mostly sunny skies will also follow these two days as incredibly dry conditions near the surface and aloft dominate over the state. By Tuesday, however, conditions are expected to change as a large cluster of surface low-pressure systems move eastward towards the region. A pocket of moisture associated with these lows will provide the chance for rain to return on Tuesday. This is supported by an upper-level low at 500 mb following alongside the surface low then-merging with the flow by early Tuesday. Despite this merger, a discrete shortwave will still move along with the flow over Ohio, despite the weak troughing. Temperatures are expected to remain steady in the mid-50s during the short-term, lending to a nice start of the week before Thanksgiving Day on Thursday. Thankfully, the highest chance for rain will remain on Tuesday for the bulk of it. However, models are in general agreement that most of the state will see a large area of rain throughout most of the morning before tapering off by the early afternoon with the possibility of a stray shower or two in the evening.
Long-Term Forecast (Wednesday 11/26/2025 through Saturday 11/29/2025)
We can expect a brief break from precipitation for the long-term as high-pressure fills into the state by Wednesday. However, during this time Wednesday and Thursday, a trough will begin to develop and deepen, and a noticeable drop in temperatures will be felt for the remainder of the week. Cold air from Canada will dig southward into Ohio, in part thanks to another surface low alongside a weak low aloft dragging this air downwards. Stable conditions will keep the surface and much of the air aloft to remain dry throughout this time as well, though some moisture aloft may still remain. Moisture may creep into the lower levels of the atmosphere Saturday as clouds are expected to build. Temperatures will remain in the mid-to-upper 30s for the remainder of the week, dipping as low as near 36 on Thanksgiving Day. Thankfully, we have the chance to expect mostly sunny skies on Thursday, if not windy. Winds, thanks to a strong pressure gradient related to the surface low moving from Wisconsin into Canada by this time, could have sustained winds of around 15 mph, but may have gusts of up to 25 mph at some spots. Overall, pleasant conditions, though cold and windy, can be anticipated for any holiday plans later this week!
