Issued: 12am on Thursday, January 1st 1970
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short term (Sunday 11/4 through Tuesday 11/6)
The region will remain in an area of upper level ridge for Sunday. An upper level trough is visible to the east trying to organize, but does not disrupt upper level patterns for Sunday. Ridging is relatively weak, but WAA is present as highs will reach the low 60s. A low pressure system in the Central Plains will bring a small amount of moisture in for Sunday, but is driven northward by mid-level flow, so only slight cloud cover and relatively dry conditions can be expected for Sunday. The downstream portion of the upper level trough will reach the region late Monday. Cloud cover will increase as Monday progresses. Showers become likely for Tuesday as a low pressure system moves through the state. The trough looks to dig through Tuesday, so there is a small possibility of a thunderstorm or two as the low pressure system looks to be strong which will mean abundant instability. Frontal winds could also produce gusts up to 25 mph as the low pressure looks to be strong and relatively strong vorticity associated with the front will allow strong winds to mix down. Deeply layered moisture layer is also present so heavy rain is also a possibility. A downburst also can’t be ruled out as the frontal boundary passes over on Tuesday.
Long term (Wednesday 11/7 through Saturday 11/10)
The region will be in the center of broad upper level troughing on Wednesday. A high pressure system will quickly approach behind the frontal system that hits the region on Tuesday that enhances dry and fair conditions. The upper level low will begin to dig late Wednesday into early Thursday that will result in the region being put under the downstream portion of the trough that will enhance instability. A weak low pressure system looks to be generated by this trough enhancement later Thursday that will create precipitation in the area for Thursday night and through the first half of Friday. A cold front associated with the low pressure system will put Friday evening temperatures below freezing which could result in widespread frost for Saturday morning. CAA will continue through Saturday as temperatures only reach the low 40s, but dry air will create calm and clear conditions for all of Saturday.