Issued: 8pm on Sunday, October 19th 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term Forecast (Sunday 10/19/2025 through Tuesday 10/21/2025)
The trough aloft is expected to push out of the region overnight Sunday with the surface cold front well out of the region by now. A weak omega block is expected to continue through the short-term but will slowly dissipate approaching Tuesday. High pressure is expected to fill back into the region by the time the ridge associated with this blocking pattern rolls through with clearer skies as a result. Temperatures are expected to remain around the mid-to-upper-60s the next couple of days with slightly warmer temperatures on Tuesday as an approaching warm front moves through. Winds may be slightly gusty Monday and Tuesday with wind gusts of up to 20 mph Monday and 25 mph on Tuesday. 500 mb heights will expand much of tonight into tomorrow but will rapidly begin to fall into Tuesday. A cold front associated with another mid-latitude cyclone will slowly make its way eastward towards the state Tuesday morning, and with it will be those gusty winds and a build of clouds throughout the morning. Though, these clouds aren’t likely to be widespread as moisture throughout the atmosphere isn’t expected to be too abundant. Cold air advection will punch through the state on Tuesday, though with minimal daytime heating to allow for substantial convection, confidence for rain, much less storms, are fairly low at the moment.
Long-Term Forecast (Wednesday 10/22/2025 through Saturday 10/25/2025)
Once the cold front pushes through late Tuesday, Wednesday will see a significant drop in temperatures possibly into the mid-50s. Moisture throughout the atmosphere is still expected to be fairly lackluster for majority of the long-term, though a pocket of moisture may creep through Wednesday and Saturday. Clouds will remain for the long-term but may pick up during both of these days with rain possibly returning on Saturday, though it’s too early to determine confidently. Wednesday and Thursday may still have some fairly gusty conditions with the possibility for even more cold fronts to move through the area. Most of this unsettled weather will be spearheaded with a dominating low aloft and associated jet streak. An embedded shortwave to the west of the state is expected to possibly play a more active role on Sunday but could help set up on Saturday as aforementioned cloud cover increases. Cold air advection will begin to weaken starting Wednesday as slightly warmer temperatures filter through the state, albeit these temperatures are still fairly cold. Vertical development is not expected to be potent throughout the long term but may strengthen just barely on Saturday. Overall, conditions will be fairly calm with chillier conditions and relatively windy, though rain could make a return by next weekend.
