Issued: 8pm on Sunday, October 26th 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term Forecast (Sunday 10/19/2025 through Tuesday 10/21/2025)
Surface high-pressure will continue to remain fairly dominate throughout the region during the short-term. Aloft, a major omega block will define itself come Tuesday, enveloping the region in a ridge. Skies are expected to remain relatively cloudy through Tuesday, and while rain is a possibility on Tuesday, it’s not immensely high. Late Tuesday will see the omega block start to pinch off but is expected to develop further into the long-term. Upper-level heights are expected to remain relatively stable in the short-term, so generally stable conditions should be expected for the start of the work week. Temperatures will also remain fairly stable as cooler temperatures continue to sit over the state. Moisture throughout the atmosphere will stay relatively dry with slightly higher relative humidity values near the surface. Overall calm conditions should be expected during the short-term.
Long-Term Forecast (Wednesday 10/22/2025 through Saturday 10/25/2025)
As previously mentioned, the omega block aloft is expected to pinch off primarily starting in the long-term. A cut-off low will likely form because of this, forming just southwest of Ohio. Alongside this cut-off low, a surface mid-latitude cyclone will follow in its place northeastward. By Thursday and Friday, this mid-latitude cyclone will have since occluded and push closer to the state. With this in mind, we should expect some rain Wednesday and especially Thursday. Thunderstorms are not a concern, but rain may become widespread as it travels along this surface low. While the strongest height drops will occur to the southwest, we may see some minor drops as well. Naturally, cold air advection is expected to occur during this time, especially at 500 and 700 mb where the cold core of the cut-off low is the most prominent, so we should expect a cooling trend to occur later in the week. This cooling trend could bring southeastern Ohio into the lower-50s as our daytime highs! Otherwise, rain likely will be our biggest driver of weather this week ahead of the approaching mid-latitude cyclone.
