Issued: 8pm on Sunday, October 5th 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term Forecast (Sunday 10/05/2025 through Tuesday 10/07/2025)
A very weak trough will move over the region in the short-term. Despite this minor trough, stable conditions are still expected to dominate throughout the next couple of days. 500 mb heights will stay relatively equal, though it could take a very minor dip on Tuesday as a surface cold front and low-pressure system approaches the region. Near surface temperatures will remain fairly warm and southwesterly, though 700 and 500 mb temperatures are expected to be fairly cool and some very minor cold air advection at this level. This cold air advection will become more prominent starting Wednesday as the cold front moves over the region by that time. Humidity values will remain fairly comfortable throughout the next couple of days but are expected to increase Tuesday as rain moves through. This rain may be widespread at times throughout the day, and most of Tuesday could expect some quantity of precipitation. With the layer of cold air above near surface warm air, some instability may be present during this time as well. However, most of this instability is likely to be weak, but could be enough for a rumble of thunder or two to occur, but confidence in this is not incredibly high.
Long-Term Forecast (Wednesday 10/08/2025 through Saturday 10/11/2025)
The surface cold front is expected to finally move through overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Significantly drier air will fill in behind this front throughout the atmosphere and high-pressure at the surface will return starting the long-term. This high-pressure, as we’ve seen countless instances before, will dominate the eastern United States and force conditions to remain clear and dry. A minor, embedded shortwave may reside over the state on Saturday, but a lack of substantial moisture won’t allow this wave pattern to do much. Thankfully, we may see some cooler temperatures beginning in the long-term. These temperatures may consistently reach the upper-60s to lower-70s for majority of the week and possibly into the weekend which is much appreciated after these long spells of temperatures reaching the 80s recently. Little activity is expected during this time, and repeat patterns of dry, sunny days will continue to define the start of October.
