Issued: 12am on Thursday, January 1st 1970
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short term (Sunday 9/2 through Tuesday 9/4)
The region will be in an area of enhanced ridging for the rest of this evening. Moisture will be trapped under the ridge. With this ridge and high pressure generated from the Appalachians, convection seems unlikely, so only humid conditions will be produced. Models have surface level relative humidity around 40 percent, which will make temperatures feel in the lowers 90s. Heat advisories are unlikely, but caution should still be taken as heat will be a continuous trend for the forecast period. Labor day will see the continuation of minimal cloud cover and hot conditions. Humidity could bring indexes into the mid to upper 90s. A heat advisory is possible on Labor day as Monday will be a consecutively hot day with an increase in low level humidity. Upper level patterns will become nearly zonal mid-Monday allowing for moisture to be advected into the region as high pressure remains over central West Virginia. The high pressure will stop any convection that moves too far southeast into the area from interacting with available moisture. High pressure will moves south stationary as the upper level ridge strengthens mid-Tuesday. Ridging will continue to bring in warm, saturated air from the south that will increase surface humidity levels to around 60 percent. With highs predicted around 92 to 93 degrees, heat indexes could possibly reach the lowers 100s. Chances for a heat advisory will be highest on this day in the short term forecast period. Caution is advised and strenuous activity should be halted or planned before or after the mid afternoon through the early evening.
Long term (Wednesday 9/5 through Saturday 9/8)
Upper level ridging will continue to strengthen as it moves out of the region on Wednesday. It will continue to influence the trend of clear and humid conditions for Wednesday as highs will be in the low 90s, with a heat index that looks to be in the mid to upper 90s. High pressure will be in northern West Virginia that will stop and diurnal heating convection as well. On Thursday, weak troughing will be propagated into the region that will also bring a weak cold front into Ohio at the beginning of the day. The area will see a gradual increase in cloud cover as Thursday progresses. The frontal boundary will be near the area late Thursday, but high pressure will halt possible convection until Friday. Moisture will be available and an isolated area of 2000 J/kg will be near the region, so showers and a few storms are possible on Friday. The front will become more stationary on Saturday as the boundary passes to the south. Another around of showers and storms will be possible as as moisture moves in behind the front. CAPE will roughly be around 2000 J/kg again, but moisture will be more abundant, so some heavier showers could be possible on Saturday.
The next technical discussion will be on Wednesday 9/5