Issued: 12am on Thursday, January 1st 1970
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short term (Sunday 9/9 through Tuesday 9/11)
A shortwave trough located in the mid and upper levels will be in near Ohio today. This will serve as the mechanism to carry the rest of Gordon into the region Sunday night. The flow patterns of the exiting ridge and entering trough will serve to push the low pressure system to the south northward towards Athens. CAPE values are nearly nonexistent on Sunday, so storms will be few, but rain will be likely. Models agree that shearing around 40 knots will be present on Sunday. This plus deeply layered moisture means downpours are possible. The lack of CAPE will not necessarily mean no convection as vorticity will be present near the frontal boundaries, so a few storms will be possible. Models have precipitable water around or at 2 inches. With yesterday’s precipitation, flooding will be continuous risk with potential to flash flooding as well if heavy downpours are sustained. Monday will be another day marked by rain. The region will be in the warm sector of the low pressure system that will be marked by warmer air and moisture. The warm sector will decay as it enters the area. Another sustained period of precipitation exists on Monday as the cold front pushes through early to mid Monday. Moisture and cloud cover will begin to move out of the region as weak ridging begins to build behind the trough. High pressure will follow the cold front as it pushes in dry air into the region. A shortwave feature exists over the Plains, but relatively zonal flow will exist over Ohio, so conditions should remain calm until features or flow begins to change.
Long term (Wednesday 9/12 through Saturday 9/15)
Starting on Wednesday, General ridging accompanied by high pressure to the east will create drier conditions early on. Cloud cover will only slightly decrease as what remains of Gordon will apart of a stationary front off to the east. As hurricane Florence moves into the east coast, the stationary front will be pushed northwest near the region. Precipitation is not likely as of now, but clouds will remain as mid level moisture is pushed into the region. The stationary front will slowly decay on Thursday as it is taken over by Florence, but some moisture looks to become trapped up the upper level ridge that continues to develop. Clouds will decrease the upper atmosphere stabilizes. Thursday will be somewhat humid due to moisture hanging around, but the day should be relatively clear. Friday will be relatively the same. Some CAPE that develops in the early evening could produce an isolated shower, but chances are unlikely. On Saturday, a upper level trough is evident to the west, but conditions calm as ridging will still be over the region until around late Sunday.