Issued: 11am on Friday, November 3rd 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term (Friday 11/3/2023 through Sunday 11/5/2023):
A very zonal pattern has set up aloft supporting the dominant high-pressure system that has brought the eastern CONUS nice clear weather. This high pressure is supported by somewhat weak NVA aloft, but that will push out of the region with a surge of PVA on Saturday, associated with a shortwave trough. This shortwave is what we anticipate will bring chances for precipitation in the long term. For the short-term forecast, expect temperatures to continue to climb into the high 60s, and clouds to push in tonight and tomorrow as this low-pressure system approaches the region.
Long-Term (Monday 11/6/2023 through Wednesday 11/8/2023):
As the trough moves in, another zonal flow pattern aloft will set up with a strong upper-level jet supportive of the low-pressure system that is going to bring us some rain. Additionally, a low-level jet will set up transporting more moisture into the region with this surface low that will supply the moisture needed for the precipitation, which looks to last through the majority of the work week except Monday. Behind the first cold front, a mature low-pressure system is expected to move in and prefrontal precipitation ahead of the warm front is expected, with the cold front passing just behind it.
Synopsis:
Friday – Sunday: Sunny skies with clouds moving in Friday PM, temperatures climbing into the mid-60s.
Monday – Wednesday: More clouds, the chance of rain starting on Monday PM and persisting throughout the long-term forecast.
