Current Forecast Meet the Forecaster

Issued: 12am on Thursday, January 1st 1970

Technical Forecast Discussion

Short term (Sunday 8/26 through Tuesday 8/28)

Sunday will see a transition from upper level troughing to ridging. A isolated region of strong CAPE will be in the region tonight with models agreeing around a max of 2750 J/kg. Moisture will not be readily available until late tonight, so it is uncertain how much CAPE will actually be available by the time moisture is over the area. For now a small chance for storms will exist this evening. Clouds will be plentiful this evening as some moisture continues to be advected. Clouds will clear by Monday afternoon as highs reach the high 80s. Upper level ridging over the region on Monday will trap mid-level moisture leading to humid conditions as highs reach the 90s. 700mb relative humidity is showing around 50-60% in the afternoon, so a heat advisory could be possible. Strong diurnal heating could help generate convection. Models show max CAPE nearing 2000 J/kg with stronger values off to the West. Storms will likely spawn in the later afternoon on Monday, but their lifespan is uncertain as ridging is dominating the upper levels, so convection will not be able to rise fully. Ridging strengthens on Tuesday as high pressure from the Southeast will eliminate most of the cloud cover from Monday. Tuesday will see temperatures remaining in the high 80s to low 90s as ridging continues to promote WAA. Moisture will move out in the evening on Tuesday, but humidity will still be a factor for the late morning and afternoon.

Long term (Wednesday 8/29 through Saturday 9/1)

On Wednesday, troughing will take over at the upper level as a cold front is pushed into the state mid Wednesday. The front should not have influence on weather patterns until later in the evening. Fair conditions and low cloud cover will remain during the day on Wednesday as it continues to be somewhat humid with highs in the high 80s. The frontal boundary is expected to arrive late Wednesday/early Thursday. CAPE will be low during this time as nighttime cooling will be in effect, so storms will be scattered and short lived. Upper level troughing will over the region for day on Thursday. Convection will be behind the cold frontal boundary as it pass over so storms and showers will continue to be a possibility through the late morning into the late afternoon. Upper level ridging will return on Friday as dry air pushes out any remaining convection. This will in return create clear and calm conditions. Some CAA will be present as temperatures slightly decrease into the mid 80s on Friday. The day on Saturday will be a continuation of these conditions, but clouds will return Saturday night as another trough will push a warm front near the region that night.

The next technical discussion will be Wednesday 8/29