Current Forecast Meet the Forecaster

Issued: 12am on Thursday, January 1st 1970

Technical Forecast Discussion

Short term (Sunday 12/30 through Tuesday 1/1)

Models show an abundance of moisture available during the day Sunday. This looks to be induced from the passing of a jet streak and southerly flow to the west bringing up moisture from Mexico. A possible chance for rain/snow mix will exist Sunday night as forcing could interact with moisture to create precipitation. A relatively deep, negatively tilted trough makes its way into the region on Monday. This upper level wave will bring a mid-latitude cyclone into the region, promoting increased cloud cover early Monday and a transition to rain later that day as the warm frontal boundary moves through. The deeply layered area and moisture and the presence of the jet streak as a forcing mechanism have models showing rainfall amounts possible around 1 inch. Strong winds gusts are also predcited, likely due to the strength of the temperature and pressure gradients associated with the system. The passage of the cold front Tuesday will bring in dry air behind it that will halt precipitation and slowly clear up clouds.

Long term (Wednesday 1/2 through Saturday 1/5)

Clouds will clear up Wednesday as an upper level ridge moves through the region. Some moisture will become trapped under the ridge which will result in clouds remaining over the area during Wednesday. Another low pressure system moves up from the Gulf of Mexico to the Northeast coast late Wednesday. Models currently have the region being scraped by the northwest sector of this system. Depending on the vertical temperature profile on Thursday will determine if how rain and snow are in the mixed precipitation Thursday and Thursday night. Current models show rain dominating the precipitation mode on Thursday. Upper level ridging will move in once again on Friday that promotes high pressure and clear conditions for Friday and Saturday.