Issued: 12am on Thursday, January 1st 1970
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short term (Wednesday 7/25 through Saturday 7/28)
Moisture will slowly decrease as the night progresses. CAPE will remain small for the rest of the night, barely breaking 1000 J/kg. Storms and showers will still have a slight possibility due to a band of relative vorticity staying in the area until tomorrow morning. Cloud cover will be variable, but become more later in the night. On Thursday, drier air behind the previous front will continue to push into the region resulting in a clear day with temperatures only in the low 80s due to CAA from the previous front. High pressure will also be to the South on Thursday reinforcing clear conditions. An upper level trough will be over the Midwest late Thursday that propagates another cold front into the state. The timing of when the front is in the area will determine the length and intensity of potential storms. Currently, models have the cold frontal boundary passing through early on Friday. If predictions remain accurate, precipitation will be minimal as diurnal heating and available convection will be unavailable. If the front begins to move slower and arrive around mid to late afternoon, stronger storms could potentially arise. This is due to shearing values maxing between 40 and 50 knots. CAPE is still somewhat weak though and the front itself appears weak as well as there is little vorticity or moisture ahead of it. Currently favoring front arrival in the early day, plus with current conditions, the likelihood of strong to severe storms looks unlikely and short lived if they were to occur. Cloud cover will increase around late morning early afternoon and decrease as the evening arrives. On Saturday, high pressure looks to settle in Indiana as more dry air arrives behind the cold front. Highs will only be in the low 80s due to the combination of CAA and the upper level trough blocking warm moist air from the south.
Long term (Sunday 7/29 through Tuesday 7/31)
Conditions should remain calm on through the day on Sunday as high pressure will still be near, but the upper level trough becomes negatively tilted as moisture moves into the region. The area will see showers and a few storms Sunday night depending of the timing of convection with diurnal heating. A low pressure system will begin to develop overnight as the warm front will push into the region on Monday. CAPE once again is relatively absent on models as the warm front passes over. Precipitation will be likely though as moisture will be more than abundant. Periods of heavy rain and downpours will also be possible with as the presence of a jet streak and shearing. Relative vorticity is somewhat weak, but with the other conditions should help produce storms. If CAPE values increase in the future, the potential for severe weather will increase as well. Tuesday should be another day of precipitation as the cold front nears the region. Uplift associated with front dynamics should compensate for the lack of CAPE as bands of showers and storms will be likely. Heavy rain will be possible again as moisture will be even more organized than Monday and jet streak will be near Ohio, maxing at around 120 knots.
