Issued: 12am on Thursday, January 1st 1970
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short term (Wednesday 9/5 through Saturday 9/8)
Upper level ridging will continue to strengthen as it moves out of the region on Wednesday. It will continue to influence the trend of clear and humid conditions for Wednesday as highs will be in the low 90s, with a heat index that looks to be in the mid to upper 90s. High pressure will be in northern West Virginia that will stop and diurnal heating convection as well. On Thursday, weak troughing will be propagated into the region that will also bring a weak cold front into Ohio at the beginning of the day. The area will see a gradual increase in cloud cover as Thursday progresses. The frontal boundary will be near the area late Thursday, but high pressure will halt possible convection until Friday. Moisture will be available and an isolated area of 2000 J/kg will be near the region, so showers and a few storms are possible on Friday. The front will become more stationary on Saturday as the boundary passes to the south. Another around of showers and storms will be possible as as moisture moves in behind the front. CAPE will roughly be around 2000 J/kg again, but moisture will be more abundant, so some heavier showers could be possible on Saturday. Near the end of Saturday, the left over low pressure center from Gordon will be picked up by the jet stream and propagated towards the east.
Long term (Sunday 9/9 through Tuesday 9/11)
A shortwave trough is apparent at the upper levels on Sunday. This will serve as the mechanism to carry the remnants of Gordon into the region Sunday. The flow patterns of the exiting ridge and entering trough will serve to push the stalled front to the south northward towards Athens. CAPE values are nearly nonexistent on Sunday, so rain will be likely. Models agree that shearing between 40-50 knots will be present on Sunday. This plus deeply layered moisture means downpours are possible, but the lack of convection will ruin chances for downbursts or sustained downpours. Monday will be another day marked by rain. Despite being in the warm sector, the cold front will be in the processes of forcing occlusion. The warm sector will decay as it enter the area. Another chance for heavy precipitation exists on Monday. The heaviest rain will line up with the arrival of the cold frontal boundary. High pressure will follow the cold front as it pushes in dry air into the region. A shortwave feature exists over the Plains, but relatively zonal flow will exist over Ohio, so conditions should remain calm until features or flow begins to change.
The next discussion will be Sunday 9/9
