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Issued: 12am on Thursday, January 1st 1970

Technical Forecast Discussion

Short term ( Sunday 7/15 through Tuesday 7/17)

Precipitation will remain scattered through the region into tonight. CAPE values are nearing 3000 J/kg  and it will begin to taper off before midnight. Moisture is still present as indicated by the humidity experienced today. Shear at all level is minimal and weak high pressure will exist on the border of the Virginia States.  These conditions are favorable for pop up storms, but organized MCS cannot be fully ruled out. Storms that due occur have a chance for heavy rain as 700mb relative humidity parameter shows moisture around 50 to 60 percent. Cloud cover will remain overnight as clouds remain from previous storms and the humid night allows for condensation. An upper level trough will move over the Midwest with a cold front ahead of it in Illinois. With these features moving towards the region, conditions will become increasingly favorable for precipitation. While CAPE values will be less impressive on Monday, moisture will be reinforced in the area. Precipitation from Sunday and falling pressure will lower highs into the mid 80s, but heating will still be sufficient to be a trigger for storms. Heavy rain will still be possible in some storms on Monday, but severe potential over looks unlikely. Overnight Monday is when the cold front will enter Northwest Ohio.  This will create a band of storms and showers that will move through the region around 2am. Cloud cover will remain early Tuesday as the cold front passes over the area Tuesday afternoon. Precipitation becomes less likely as the afternoon progresses as the exit of the trough and cold front will push moisture out of the region and allow a high pressure system to progress through the Midwest.  The area should see a clearing in cloud cover through Tuesday night as well as  a much cooler night in the high 50s as moisture leaves the region.

Long term ( Wednesday 7/18 through  Saturday 7/21)

The upper level trough will continue to exit the area as Wednesday arrives.  Dry air will push into the region early Wednesday. With this dry air will be CAA from the previous front that looks to lowers temperatures into the low 80s. Cloud cover will be minimal by the mid afternoon as the high pressure system moves over Michigan. Thursday will also be defined by dry and fair weather. Upper level flow turns zonal. Ridging was occurring previously, so upper level patterns look weak as of Thursday. The lack of ridging will keep temperatures similar to Wednesday’s, but southerly flow may advect some warm air. On Friday, a shortwave trough develops in the upper levels which propagates a low pressure system into the Midwest, but conditions in the region do not look capable of producing convection until Saturday.  Saturday will bring the passage of the warm front of the low pressure system. Moisture will follow the warm frontal boundary that will increase temperatures into the mid 80s. CAPE values currently remain low despite the system being mature, so storms will be mild as of now

The next technical discussion will be Wednesday 7/18