Issued: 12am on Thursday, January 1st 1970
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short term (Wednesday 10/3 through Saturday 10/6)
Ridging will continue to build up through tonight as cloud coverage will remain minimal. High pressure will linger around the Appalachian region, adding to calm conditions. On Thursday, a cold front will begin to move in from the west as an upper level trough begins to move in as well. The cold front will makes it’s way into the western portion of the state early Thursday. Precipitation will reach the area around mid-day. CAPE is low, but the frontal boundary’s time of arrival will be around peak heating time, so forcing for convection will be more than possible. Storms will be possible around early to late afternoon. The possibility for storms and showers continue into Thursday night, but will decrease into the late evening as moisture moves slightly northward. On Friday, another small chance for showers and storms will exist due to localized convection in the later afternoon, but On Saturday, upper level ridging returns to create fair conditions for the rest of the weekend.
Long term (Sunday 10/7 through Tuesday 10/9)
Ridging continues to move through the region on Sunday. High pressure will be over Appalachia that will serve to keep cloud cover clear through Sunday. Upper level ridging will strengthen on Monday as moist, warm air moves up from the south. This will make for a humid day as the ridge will trap moisture over the region. Weak, widespread CAPE will exist on Monday, but ridging should keep most of the convection at bay, except for a small increase in clouds in the late afternoon. Temperatures on Monday could reach the high 80s, making for an unseasonably warm start to the week. On Tuesday, flow will weaken from the south, which in return will weaken WAA. Moisture will still be present, but temperatures only reach the low 80s.
